What Will Tesla be Like, when the New Factories are Ramped Up?

[FutureBoy]

TLDR: Justification for a $3000 to $5000 TSLA stock price by 2024 or 2025.

 

[John K]

What Will Tesla be Like, when the New Factories are Ramped Up?

Elon: I Told you So!

Humble response.

I’m bullish but, I do not know if I am $5,000 bullish by end of 25

 

[charliemagpie]

$5,000 by the end of 2024.

Only counting the car business… No Energy. No FSD. Nothing.
Tesla will equal Apple's yearly profit... making it $2500 per share.
I would at least value growth twice as much as Apple at that point.

Is this far-fetched ?

4,000,000	Cars sold ( conservative)
$ 15,000	Profit per car ( conservative)
$ 60,000,000,000	Total Profit…. That’s Billion!

 

[Ogre]

I’m bullish but, I do not know if I am $5,000 bullish by end of 25

Of course not, gotta set reasonable expectations, it'll only be about $1,200/ share by 2025. After the 5 to 1 split.

One crazy thing about Tesla is... I can almost see that happening.

Just consider for a moment the following is possible (some of it is highly likely):

• FSD hits it's stride, FSD/ hands free most everywhere would likely double take-rate on FSD that's Billions in high margin revenue unlocked.
  • Stretch Goal: Robo-taxi unlikely but would be absolutely massive.
• Production hits 5m vehicles shipped, Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, and Mystery 25k car ships.
  • Stretch: Cybertruck shipping 1m/ year alone.
  • Extra credit: at current 75% growth rate, maybe hit 7m vehicles/ year?
• Margins maintain at 32%, operating expenses remain flat increasing operating margins.
  • Stretch: FSD boosts margins to 40%.
• Tesla energy... this is a whole other discussion. Tesla energy can easily expand to 20x current.
• TeslaBot is born...

Hitting all of that, including the stretch goals might get us to a $5,000 from here. I'm not predicting that much. But I do see the possibility. Probably the key to it all though is if in 2025 it still looks like 20m vehicles/ year will be possible by 2030.

 

[Bill906]

Of course not, gotta set reasonable expectations, it'll only be about $1,200/ share by 2025. After the 5 to 1 split.

One crazy thing about Tesla is... I can almost see that happening.

Just consider for a moment the following is possible (some of it is highly likely):

• FSD hits it's stride, FSD/ hands free most everywhere would likely double take-rate on FSD that's Billions in high margin revenue unlocked.
  • Stretch Goal: Robo-taxi unlikely but would be absolutely massive.
• Production hits 5m vehicles shipped, Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, and Mystery 25k car ships.
  • Stretch: Cybertruck shipping 1m/ year alone.
  • Extra credit: at current 75% growth rate, maybe hit 7m vehicles/ year?
• Margins maintain at 32%, operating expenses remain flat increasing operating margins.
  • Stretch: FSD boosts margins to 40%.
• Tesla energy... this is a whole other discussion. Tesla energy can easily expand to 20x current.
• TeslaBot is born...

Hitting all of that, including the stretch goals might get us to a $5,000 from here. I'm not predicting that much. But I do see the possibility. Probably the key to it all though is if in 2025 it still looks like 20m vehicles/ year will be possible by 2030.

First line made me

. But I

the entire post.